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Global EVOO Production Slips 4% in 2025/26: Spain Down, Italy Rebounding
According to IOC projections and USDA data, global extra virgin olive oil production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at approximately 3.44 million tonnes, roughly 4% below the prior year. Spain has been revised downward while Italy is staging a meaningful recovery.
Translated from the Korean edition, originally published May 8, 2026 · read the original
At the mid-point of the 2025/26 season, a synthesis of data from the International Olive Council (IOC), the USDA, and private market reports points to a global extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) market that has moved out of its brief recovery and into another modest contraction. According to the IOC's season outlook published in December 2025, global production is forecast at approximately 3.44 million tonnes, down roughly 4% from the prior year. That picture is corroborated by IOC statistical releases from January and February 2026 and by a market report published by Certified Origins in March 2026.
Spain Revised Down, Italy Rebounding
Spain's 2025/26 production forecast now stands at approximately 1.37 million tonnes — a downward revision of 3–8% from the initial October estimate of 1.44 million tonnes. The IOC attributes the change to high autumn temperatures and dry conditions that reduced fruit size and oil content on non-irrigated farms.
Italy is moving in the opposite direction. Output is forecast at around 300,000 tonnes, representing a 21–30% increase year-on-year, with Puglia and Calabria reported to have benefited from summer rainfall. Greece remains broadly stable at approximately 270,000–280,000 tonnes, while Tunisia is posting strong growth — several reports note the possibility that Tunisia could surpass Italy or Greece this season. Portugal is tracking steadily at roughly 160,000–170,000 tonnes.
Prices: Volatility Within a Broader Correction
EVOO prices have fallen sharply from their 2023 peak, but the inventory shortfalls and downward crop revisions of the 2025/26 season have reintroduced volatility. According to the Certified Origins March 2026 report, conventional EVOO from Spanish origins is trading at approximately €4.50–5.00 per kilogram at the farm-gate wholesale level, with organic at around €5.50. Tunisian and Portuguese origins are quoted lower, in the €3.40–3.85 range. The global average price in March 2026 was reported at approximately $6,068 per tonne. Retail prices in most markets typically trail origin prices by six to nine months, meaning any firming at the farm-gate level in May could feed through to shelf-price increases in the second half of the year.
Consumption Is Slowly Growing — and Shifting
Global EVOO consumption for 2025/26 is forecast at approximately 3.25 million tonnes, a roughly 1% increase over the prior season. The EU's share of global consumption has declined from around 70% in the 2004/05 season to approximately 45% more recently, with non-EU IOC member markets and non-member countries driving the growth. The United States crossed a notable milestone in 2023, surpassing Spain to become the world's second-largest consuming country.
For buyers navigating this season's supply, Italian 2025/26 new-harvest oil should be more accessible given the recovery in output. For single-varietal Spanish oils — Picual, Ojiblanca, and Arbequina among them — the season's volatility makes press-date, origin, and cultivar labelling more important than ever as indicators of what is actually in the bottle. Taken together, the broad consensus across the market reports reviewed is that the first half of 2026 looks less like a post-crisis rebound and more like a period of stable volatility: neither crisis nor clear-air recovery.
Frequently asked questions
- How much olive oil is being produced globally in the 2025/26 season?
- According to the International Olive Council's December 2025 forecast, global olive oil production for the 2025/26 season is projected at approximately 3.44 million tonnes, around 4% lower than the previous season.
- Why is Spanish olive oil production lower this season?
- The IOC attributes the downward revision in Spain's 2025/26 forecast — from an initial 1.44 million tonnes in October to approximately 1.37 million tonnes — to high autumn temperatures and dry conditions that reduced fruit size and oil content on non-irrigated farms.
- Which countries are growing their olive oil output in 2025/26?
- Italy is forecast to produce around 300,000 tonnes, a 21–30% increase year-on-year, with Puglia and Calabria benefiting from summer rainfall. Tunisia is also posting strong growth, with some market reports noting it could surpass Italy or Greece. Portugal is tracking steadily at roughly 160,000–170,000 tonnes.
- What are current wholesale prices for extra virgin olive oil?
- According to market data compiled by Certified Origins in March 2026, conventional EVOO from Spanish origins is trading at approximately €4.50–5.00 per kilogram, while organic commands around €5.50. Tunisian and Portuguese origins are lower, at roughly €3.40–3.85 per kilogram. The global average price in March 2026 was reported at approximately $6,068 per tonne.
- Is global consumption of extra virgin olive oil increasing?
- Global EVOO consumption for 2025/26 is forecast at approximately 3.25 million tonnes, a roughly 1% increase over the prior year. The EU's share of global consumption has fallen from around 70% in the 2004/05 season to approximately 45% more recently, with growth driven by non-EU and non-IOC member markets. The United States overtook Spain in 2023 to become the world's second-largest consuming country.
Related reading
- EVOO Prices Are Easing — Here's Why They Rose and How Far They've Fallen
Global extra virgin olive oil wholesale prices hit record highs in the 2023–24 season and are now retreating. Harvest conditions, climate shocks, and the structure of the supply chain each play a distinct role in how prices move.
- Burning Groves: How Wildfire and Air Pollution Are Reshaping Olive Oil Country
The Mediterranean produces around 95% of the world's olive oil — and it is heating up faster than almost anywhere else on earth. From scorched root systems to smoke-tainted harvests, environmental disaster is leaving marks on olive groves that last far longer than the flames.
- Spain's Top EVOO Estates: A Guide to the Names That Keep Winning
Not all single-estate Spanish olive oils occupy the same tier. From Jaén and Granada to the Tabernas Desert and Extremadura, this guide maps the Spanish houses that international competition judges and critic guides return to year after year.
- Castillo de Canena: How a 1780 Family Estate Became a Biodynamic EVOO Benchmark
A single Andalusian estate has been farming olives on the same land since 1780 — yet the premium reputation that precedes Castillo de Canena today was built largely in the last two decades, through biodynamic certification, cultivar transparency, and a deliberate repositioning in the global EVOO market.
- Spain, Italy, Greece: How the Three EVOO Heartlands Taste Different
Spain, Italy, and Greece together account for more than 80 percent of the world's extra virgin olive oil, according to the International Olive Council — yet the flavors they produce could hardly be more distinct.
- Tunisia's Olive Oil Is No Longer Just a Bulk Story
Tunisia has reclaimed its position as the world's second-largest EVOO producer and is steadily expanding single-cultivar labelling — a shift that is reframing a country long associated with anonymous bulk supply.
Tags
- evoo market
- olive oil production
- spain
- italy
- global supply
