Climate Change Is Reshaping the Olive Oil Supply — Here's the Scale of It

The Numbers: How Far Has Production Fallen?

The olive oil market is under serious pressure. According to an International Olive Council (IOC) report, global olive oil production in the 2022/23 season came to approximately 2.49 million tonnes — a drop of roughly 30% against the preceding five-year average. Spain, which is responsible for more than 40% of world output, fell below 800,000 tonnes in the same season, its lowest figure in a decade. Italy and Greece recorded simultaneous declines, making the supply contraction a pan-European event rather than an isolated national problem.

With supply down, prices moved sharply upward. According to Spain's Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, the farmgate price of Spanish extra virgin olive oil surpassed €9 per kilogram in the second half of 2023 — more than double the level of two years earlier. The rise consumers felt at the shelf was even steeper: data from UK grocery research firm Kantar showed that retail olive oil prices in major European markets climbed more than 50% year-on-year on average in 2023.

Three Ways Climate Change Is Hitting the Olive Harvest

Olive trees have adapted over centuries to the Mediterranean climate. But the pace of recent change is proving difficult even for this resilient crop to absorb.

The first pressure is extreme heat. According to a report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), average temperatures across the Mediterranean in the summer of 2023 were approximately 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the highest on record. When temperatures spike sharply during the spring flowering period, pollination success rates are reported to fall significantly; sustained high heat through fruit development reduces the moisture content of the olive itself, lowering oil yield at the press.

The second pressure is chronic drought. Data from Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) show that rainfall in Andalusia during the 2022–2023 olive growing season was roughly half the long-term average. While olive trees are relatively drought-tolerant, multiple agricultural studies report that severe moisture deficits during the critical fruit-development window reduce both fruit weight and the proportion of extractable oil.

The third pressure is disrupted biennial cycles. Olive trees naturally alternate between higher- and lower-yield years. Climate disruption is making that rhythm increasingly erratic, and — as experts have noted — the peak output of even the better years is trending lower than in the past. This structural downward drift is what most concerns industry analysts.

Production by Origin: From Spain to North Africa

Spain has absorbed the largest losses, but the crisis is not confined to any single country. According to the Italian farming association Coldiretti, Italian olive oil production fell approximately 34% year-on-year in 2023. In parts of Tuscany and Puglia, the olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae) survived in greater numbers through increasingly mild winters, compounding weather-related damage.

Greece fared comparatively better but saw portions of its olive-growing land lost to large-scale wildfires in 2023. Paradoxically, the difficulties along the northern Mediterranean have elevated the standing of North African origins. According to IOC data, Tunisia produced approximately 240,000 tonnes in the 2022/23 season — a record result — and attracted strong interest from European buyers. Morocco is similarly being watched as a growing force in the global supply picture.

The Quality Paradox: Polyphenols Under Stress

A production decline does not translate solely into higher prices; it also shifts the quality landscape. Research has reported that olives under drought stress produce elevated levels of polyphenols and other antioxidant compounds as a physiological survival response. A study by a research team at Spain's National Research Council (CSIC) found that moderate water stress significantly increases concentrations of oleocanthal and oleuropein-type polyphenols in extra virgin olive oil.

For producers, this creates a strategic argument: make less, but make it better. Growers in premium Spanish designations such as Priego de Córdoba and Montes de Toledo have responded to lower volumes by tightening quality thresholds and targeting higher-value market segments — a direction the data on stress-induced polyphenol accumulation appears to support, though researchers note it is too early to draw firm conclusions about consumer health outcomes.

How Consumers Are Responding to the Crunch

Higher prices are visibly reshaping buying behaviour. In Italy — the European Union's largest consuming market — NielsenIQ data recorded a roughly 8% decline in retail olive oil sales volume in 2023. Sunflower and canola oils saw some demand gains, but the perception that olive oil's flavour and character cannot be straightforwardly substituted has so far prevented a wholesale shift.

The more striking response has come from Asia. Despite price increases, interest in extra virgin olive oil has continued to grow steadily across import markets including Japan and China. According to the IOC's annual report, olive oil consumption across the Asia-Oceania region has more than doubled compared with the early 2010s. A consumer segment willing to absorb price rises in exchange for a premium product is clearly forming in these markets.

The Outlook: A Structural Transition, Not a Temporary Blip

Viewed through the lens of long-term climate change rather than a run of bad seasons, the olive oil industry appears to be entering a structural transition. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Mediterranean region is warming at approximately 1.5 times the global average rate, and that trajectory is expected to continue.

Producers are responding on several fronts: trialling drought-resistant cultivars, modernising irrigation infrastructure, relocating cultivation to higher elevations, and developing emerging origins in Morocco, Tunisia and Portugal. Taken together, these shifts suggest that the production map of olive oil is being redrawn. For consumers, knowing an oil's origin, cultivar and harvest year is becoming less a mark of connoisseurship and more a practical guide to understanding what you are actually buying.