Climate Change Is Redrawing the Olive Oil Map: Andalusia, Puglia, and What Comes Next

According to data published by the International Olive Council (IOC) in December, global olive oil production for the 2025/26 season is projected at approximately 3.44 million tonnes — roughly 4% below the previous year. Markets are paying close attention because analysts regard this not as a one-season blip but as part of a structural shift: heat waves in Andalusia, drought in Puglia, and the spread of disease are simultaneously pressing on retail prices and redrawing the geography of production.

The EU Harvest Steps Back

The USDA has revised its EU olive oil production estimate for the same season down to approximately 2.055 million tonnes. While that figure still exceeds the five-year average, it represents a clear retreat from the recovery seen in 2024/25. Industry observers consistently point to three converging pressures: summer heat combined with insufficient autumn rainfall, regionally intensifying drought, and the spread of pathogens and pests — Xylella fastidiosa and the olive fruit fly chief among them.

Spain: A Strong Start Eroded by Summer Heat

Spain is forecast to produce around 1.37 million tonnes in 2025/26. A promising spring rainfall offered a good opening, but summer heat waves and a brief, inadequate autumn rainy season cut into yields. According to USDA data, Andalusia's output fell roughly 5% year-on-year while Castilla-La Mancha dropped nearly 17%. Extremadura, by contrast, rose around 5%, and Catalonia posted a rebound driven by a low base effect from the prior season.

Field reports from Granada and Málaga — areas within Andalusia that lack irrigation infrastructure — describe yield losses of 30–70% where heat and drought struck simultaneously. The implication is significant: the centuries-old production geography of Andalusia is being redrawn along irrigation lines, with irrigated farms and non-irrigated farms diverging sharply in resilience.

Italy: Puglia Under a Double Burden

Italy's 2025/26 production outlook stands at roughly 300,000 tonnes — enough to cover only about 30% of domestic consumption and export demand combined, with the remainder effectively sourced through bulk imports. Puglia, which accounts for approximately 59% of Italian output, is carrying two simultaneous burdens: summer drought that leaves trees stressed by the time the autumn harvest arrives, and the ongoing spread of Xylella fastidiosa, the bacterium that causes olive trees to wilt and decline. Multiple data sources suggest that Puglia's share of Italian production may gradually contract — a trend consistent with what OLEA has covered in its guide to Italy's four regional characters.

The Map Is Shifting Sideways

As climate pressure accumulates, the geography of olive oil production itself is moving. Tunisia has risen rapidly in both quality and export share since the 2024/25 season, emerging as a significant origin in the way OLEA explored in its guide to Tunisian EVOO. California and Australia have held relatively stable harvests, supported by different latitude profiles, water access, and irrigation systems — dynamics covered in OLEA's New World producer guide. Within Europe, super-high-density orchards equipped with irrigation are expanding quickly across Andalusia and Portugal. Even the spread of Arbequina as a single cultivar — from Catalonia down through Andalusia — is partly an agronomic response to climate stress, chosen for its adaptability under heat and water pressure.

Prices: Two Directions at Once

Retail prices are being pulled in two directions simultaneously. In the short term, analysts suggest prices could hold in a range roughly 30–40% below their recent peak for an extended period. Over the medium term, however, the prevailing view is that the persistent autumn rainfall deficits flagged consistently by both the IOC and the USDA will feed through to next season's supply and revive upward pressure. The price dynamics OLEA outlined in its explanation of why olive oil prices rise — harvest cycles, climate, and exchange rates — remain valid; what has changed is the time horizon. Rather than an acute shock, the market is entering a phase in which slow-accumulating climate stress is steadily, if quietly, being priced in.

What to Check at the Shelf

A few label habits are worth forming given this environment. The harvest year remains the single most useful starting point: acidity and intensity can shift meaningfully between seasons even within the same appellation. Labels that once read exclusively "Spain" are increasingly showing Tunisia, Portugal, or Greece — a natural consequence of diversifying origins. DOP and PGI designations are among the indicators most directly affected by local climate variability. And farm-level information on irrigation practices — once an afterthought — is appearing more often on labels and producer pages precisely because it has become a meaningful differentiator. The five-point label checklist in OLEA's how to read an olive oil label now has an effective sixth variable: climate context.

A Structural Shift, Not a Season

Climate change has moved from the category of seasonal event into something closer to a permanent variable — one that is slowly but continuously redrawing the map of where the world's olive oil comes from. Checking origin, harvest year, and acidity on the label has become more meaningful than ever.